WOW - Sitting here in one of the target zones (Chesapeake Bay) is not good
feeling... to coin a phrase. 😇
On Thu, Oct 1, 2015 at 4:30 PM, Ken Norton <ken@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > It is strange, to say the least. I've been watching the developing
> high-pressure system north of Bermuda. GFS missed this feature when
> forecasting Sandy, but UKMET caught it and got the forecast right. If that
> high-pressure system is strong enough it will prevent any tracking to the
> east.
> >
> > UKMET has Joaquin passing right over Bermuda.
>
>
> That low positioned over the Azores is what is screwing everything up
> for me. That puppy just ain't budging. While it looks like it might
> influence the development of a High north of Bermuda, I'm not sure
> that it would be so much of a high as a lack of low. Look at the WV
> loop and you can see that dry airmass being forced down towards
> Joaquin and hitting a wall about 200 miles NE of it. Just in the last
> three hours a dry-line boundary has setup and some massive storms are
> kicking up. That dry-line looks like it might stop pushing SW and the
> Hurricane might be able to start moving north. But if it doesn't stop
> pushing, Joaquin will keep moving towards Cuba.
>
> It's the high-level winds that are not quite squaring up, though.
> There is a part of me that says that this isn't going to turn north at
> all, but get shoved SW across Cuba. There is so much upper level shear
> associated with this frontal boundary going across the south-east that
> it will either turn left across Cuba or it will get shoved by the
> mid-level jetstream and move right up the coast without ever turning
> inland. Yet, what is developing in the mid-levels over the central USA
> right now could cause it to turn inland around New Jersey again.
>
> The low pressure is estimated at 942mb right now, which makes it
> pretty significant. As this puppy just isn't moving, it's turned into
> a solid mass of precip. Usually, you get well defined rainbands, but
> this has turned into what looks like a big filled pastry. But the
> eyewall just expanded out again.
>
> We'll see if it turns tonight.
>
>
>
> --
> Ken Norton
> ken@xxxxxxxxxxx
> http://www.zone-10.com
> --
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