> It is strange, to say the least. I've been watching the developing
> high-pressure system north of Bermuda. GFS missed this feature when
> forecasting Sandy, but UKMET caught it and got the forecast right. If that
> high-pressure system is strong enough it will prevent any tracking to the
> east.
>
> UKMET has Joaquin passing right over Bermuda.
That low positioned over the Azores is what is screwing everything up
for me. That puppy just ain't budging. While it looks like it might
influence the development of a High north of Bermuda, I'm not sure
that it would be so much of a high as a lack of low. Look at the WV
loop and you can see that dry airmass being forced down towards
Joaquin and hitting a wall about 200 miles NE of it. Just in the last
three hours a dry-line boundary has setup and some massive storms are
kicking up. That dry-line looks like it might stop pushing SW and the
Hurricane might be able to start moving north. But if it doesn't stop
pushing, Joaquin will keep moving towards Cuba.
It's the high-level winds that are not quite squaring up, though.
There is a part of me that says that this isn't going to turn north at
all, but get shoved SW across Cuba. There is so much upper level shear
associated with this frontal boundary going across the south-east that
it will either turn left across Cuba or it will get shoved by the
mid-level jetstream and move right up the coast without ever turning
inland. Yet, what is developing in the mid-levels over the central USA
right now could cause it to turn inland around New Jersey again.
The low pressure is estimated at 942mb right now, which makes it
pretty significant. As this puppy just isn't moving, it's turned into
a solid mass of precip. Usually, you get well defined rainbands, but
this has turned into what looks like a big filled pastry. But the
eyewall just expanded out again.
We'll see if it turns tonight.
--
Ken Norton
ken@xxxxxxxxxxx
http://www.zone-10.com
--
_________________________________________________________________
Options: http://lists.thomasclausen.net/mailman/listinfo/olympus
Archives: http://lists.thomasclausen.net/mailman/private/olympus/
Themed Olympus Photo Exhibition: http://www.tope.nl/
|