>
>> It is strange, to say the least. I've been watching the developing
>> high-pressure
>system north of Bermuda. GFS missed this feature when forecasting Sandy, but
>UKMET caught
>it and got the forecast right. If that high-pressure system is strong enough
>it will
>prevent any tracking to the east.
>>
>> UKMET has Joaquin passing right over Bermuda.
>
>
>That low positioned over the Azores is what is screwing everything up
>for me. That puppy just ain't budging. While it looks like it might
>influence the development of a High north of Bermuda, I'm not sure
>that it would be so much of a high as a lack of low. Look at the WV
>loop and you can see that dry airmass being forced down towards
>Joaquin and hitting a wall about 200 miles NE of it. Just in the last
>three hours a dry-line boundary has setup and some massive storms are
>kicking up. That dry-line looks like it might stop pushing SW and the
>Hurricane might be able to start moving north. But if it doesn't stop
>pushing, Joaquin will keep moving towards Cuba.
>
>It's the high-level winds that are not quite squaring up, though.
>There is a part of me that says that this isn't going to turn north at
>all, but get shoved SW across Cuba. There is so much upper level shear
>associated with this frontal boundary going across the south-east that
>it will either turn left across Cuba or it will get shoved by the
>mid-level jetstream and move right up the coast without ever turning
>inland. Yet, what is developing in the mid-levels over the central USA
>right now could cause it to turn inland around New Jersey again.
>
>The low pressure is estimated at 942mb right now, which makes it
>pretty significant. As this puppy just isn't moving, it's turned into
>a solid mass of precip. Usually, you get well defined rainbands, but
>this has turned into what looks like a big filled pastry. But the
>eyewall just expanded out again.
>
>We'll see if it turns tonight.
>
I've noticed that low over the Azores. Seems like everything is backing
up to the west of it.
I did not anticipate category 4 status, and even category 3 was not
supposed to take place until Saturday in the earlier forecasts. With Joaquin
sitting over the very warm water surrounding the Bahamas for today and tomorrow
I would not be surprised to see category 5 status by Saturday.
The early morning GFS forecast had returned Joaquin to making landfall
near New York City, and the NHC forecast just posted has it passing just
offshore of Cape Cod on Tuesday as a tropical storm. Presently it's a weak
category 4 at 135 MPH sustained winds.
Chris
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro
- Hunter S. Thompson
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