Yes, keeping track of this one is giving me a headache. UKMET now has it
well out to sea, almost halfway between the East Coast and Bermuda, eventually
dissipating south of Greenland. GFS has changed radically and now has it
tracking just off the East Coast then making landfall in Nova Scotia. NAM
still has it joining the low-pressure system over the southeast and moving
rapidly inland over North Carolina. NHC has it making landfall somewhere near
Atlantic City.
The CBS affiliate in Miami has a graphic showing all of the computer
models:
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-joaquin-could-hit-east-coast-hard/
The problem appears to be that there is a multitude of low-pressure and
high-pressure systems involved in the overall forecast, and those are also
evolving with each forecast.
For now, Joaquin is a category 3 storm sitting on top of the Bahamas, and
it may very well sit there for more than a day, possibly two before turning
northward.
Chris
>
>It depends on which model you want to use (there are many) and when you
>consult the model. This shows the latest spaghetti tracks:
><http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/151001082101-hurricane-joaquin-forecast-models-8-a-m-thursday-exlarge-169.jpg>
>and is already quite a bit different than it was 4 hours ago.
>
>Then the yellow track entering North Carolina was actually entering down
>near Charleston. The tropical storm of a couple of days ago, not
>expected to be other than a tropical storm then, was a category 4 over
>the Bahamas this morning with 140 mph winds.
>
>This particular storm has seemed to cause the models a great deal of
>difficulty. About the only thing that's relatively certain is that much
>of the east coast of the US is going to be very wet.
>
>Stay tuned. It will probably change again. The models have not
>suddenly grown smarter in the last few hours.
>
>Chuck Norcutt
>
>
>On 9/30/2015 4:52 PM, Chris Trask wrote:
>>>
>>> Juaquin has now strengthened to hurricane status, and the forecast is
>>> getting a bit
>>> grim. The NHC forecast predicts that it will be due east of Norfolk, VA on
>>> Monday, then
>>> heading towards Philadelphia. An extension of this, seen on CBS this
>>> morning, forecasts
>>> that it will make landfall somewhere between Philadelphia and New York City
>>> as a category
>>> 1 storm.
>>>
>>
>> I've been looking at a few forecasting systems about this, and I can
>> now see how it
>>is that UKMET Storm Tracker is dramatically different from NHC. Two features
>>shown on GFS
>>come into play here, the first being a moderate low-pressure system that is
>>developing over
>>the southeast. The second is a high-pressure system developing north of
>>Bermuda. The
>>high-pressure system will give Juaquin a kick to the west, shoving it into
>>the northeast
>>corner of the low-pressure system, just enough to draw it in and cause it to
>>continue
>>westward and be absorbed.
>>
>> This scenario is similar to that of TS Sandy, and if it proves to be
>> valid, then the
>>UKMET and GFS forecasts will be correct. Based on this, landfall should take
>>place along
>>the North Carolina coast early Sunday and the storm will proceed rapidly
>>westward.
>
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