I'm not seeing how any of these models are anywhere near correct. The
upper air data just doesn't read right to me.
First of all, there is too much shear. Secondly, this thing just isn't
moving. These storms, by this point in their development tend to
become self-propelled. This one isn't at all. Based on that, I would
say that it's going to get shoved farther east. Yet, the way the upper
air layers look, I'd say that it's going to drop back down to a TS or
Cat1 and lose the tops. As it comes ashore, it will be a major rain
event with lower winds. It's just not taking control of its
neighborhood.
AG
--
_________________________________________________________________
Options: http://lists.thomasclausen.net/mailman/listinfo/olympus
Archives: http://lists.thomasclausen.net/mailman/private/olympus/
Themed Olympus Photo Exhibition: http://www.tope.nl/
|