> Now that this storm is well within the NAM timeframe, it is looking like
> a real monster once it enters into the Great Plains. The severe weather
> activity will probably begin early Sunday morning, increasing in intensity
> and area throughout the day, reaching a peak in the afternoon from northern
> Texas, through central Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and Nebraska, then into
> western Iowa and Missouri by evening, followed by Illinois and Wisconsin late
> Sunday evening.
NAM is all over the boards on this one and not lining up with GFS. But
GFS is a disaster in inconsistancies. Take a look at "00Z MON" for
1000mb and 500mb. That squares up well. But then look at the next
three 12 hour intervals. The surface/precip models have the Iowa
cluster moving east, but that doesn't square up with where the low is
and the convergence of the air masses--especially considering the
alignment of the 500mb and 1000mb plots with that cold air from the
north coming in. The only saving grace that I see is that the cold air
mass has run out of momentum and stopped moving south.
This low pressure forming up over Nebraska Sunday-Monday is going to
make everything really interesting. But the forecasts for our area are
just saying thunderstorms, accompanied by a big yawn.
I suppose that it's possible this is a big yawner. The 850mb level is
pumping up a ton of dry air from Mexico, New Mexico and western Texas.
It almost looks like the 850mb level is choking off the moisture at
500mb from the convergence at 1000mb.
> It's a biggie, no doubt.
Well, it looks pretty on the maps. Whether it results in any exciting
weather is the question.
--
Ken Norton
ken@xxxxxxxxxxx
http://www.zone-10.com
--
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