> Sometimes. If the amount of rainfall runoff exceeds storage capacity then
> you have to release it. With snowpack you get a slower inflow and less need
> for release.
But you get sublimation with snow...
> If I look at this in detail, the Great Lakes storm is a second lower latitude
> centre of the Hudson Bay cyclone, the other centre sitting over the southern
> tip of Greenland. This will be fed along the western side by a jet of arctic
> air from Baffin Island southward on Sunday, which will accelerate things.
OK, I see it now. Had to change to a different map and your 500mb
recommendation was good because it eliminated the surface clutter. :)
The low which I was tracking across from the Great Lakes goes east and
then stalls south of Nova Scotia where it appears to intensify. That's
going to play games with the air routes...
> GFS 12 is presently showing the peak of activity around Monday morning to
> afternoon with a band of vorticity stretching from north Texas, through
> central Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and Nebraska, then ending in South Dakota.
> My educated guess is that Missouri and Iowa will see some activity in the
> late afternoon and evening.
>
> This system is still evolving to a worse case scenario.
500mb plot:
http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=500®ion=us&t=7e
However, the SL plot isn't quite lining up yet:
http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=pres®ion=us&t=7e
Looking at the 1000mb plot, it looks there is a thin cold air mass
sliding in under this upper level low:
http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=1000®ion=us&t=7e
I don't play a weatherman on TV, but this looks to me like Kansas and
Oklahoma could be the place to be if you are a storm-chaser Monday
Evening. There's going to be a ton of twist to the atmosphere. We'll
see how this evolves over the next couple of days.
--
Ken Norton
ken@xxxxxxxxxxx
http://www.zone-10.com
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