>
>> It's all going to combine with a low pressure system that stretches
>> from Baffin Island to St.
>>James Bay. There's a significant amount of energy in the form of cold Arctic
>>air in that cyclone.
>
>Noticing that one. I'm not seeing how it is going to affect the
>mid-west quite yet, but I also noticed that all of the models aren't
>quite lining up. My alternative sources aren't giving a clear
>indication. The New Mexico low pressure scooting to the NE is more of
>a November/March pattern, but we're so whacky this year that anything
>goes.
>
My primary reference is GFS 500mB down to +90 hours, then NAM 500mB.
Sometimes I use RUC if I need to see more detail during intense weather. The
mid-west won't be affected by all of this until the low over the SW moves east
of the Front Range, at which point we should see severe storm and tornado
activity.
BTW: The high pressure ridge feature is now sitting over the Rockies.
>
>> It's getting some, but mostly in the form of rain. They need snowpack
>> to provide meltoff during
>>the summer to keep the reservoirs filled, and that is not happening.
>
>I figured that a full reservoir is a full reservoir no matter the source.
>
Sometimes. If the amount of rainfall runoff exceeds storage capacity then
you have to release it. With snowpack you get a slower inflow and less need
for release.
>
>> That high pressure ridge is not in place yet due to a low pressure
>> trough streching from south
>>central Canada to Texas. The beginnings of the high pressure ridge are
>>presently sitting over the
>>intermountain region. That nor'easter will be affecting New England into
>>Wednesday. It's still far
>>too early to say for certain, but there is the potential for a significant
>>storm over the northeast
>>US and eastern Canada the following weekend.
>
>Are you thinking that my Great Lakes storm is the one that is going to
>pound into that arctic low once it slides east?
>
If I look at this in detail, the Great Lakes storm is a second lower
latitude centre of the Hudson Bay cyclone, the other centre sitting over the
southern tip of Greenland. This will be fed along the western side by a jet of
arctic air from Baffin Island southward on Sunday, which will accelerate things.
>
>One thing, for sure is that if things shape up the way I think they
>might, we're certainly looking at supercells forming in the Kansas
>City, Omaha, Des Moines triangle. Might have to anchor down the
>downspouts so they don't blow away again. I did get the shelter
>prepped and ready for diving into. Hmm.... Carpet!!!
>
The noon news here shows that the temperature in Phoenix will drop at
least 10F over the weekend, down to 80F for the high both days. Myself, I
think we'll be in the mid-70s.
GFS 12 is presently showing the peak of activity around Monday morning to
afternoon with a band of vorticity stretching from north Texas, through central
Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and Nebraska, then ending in South Dakota. My
educated guess is that Missouri and Iowa will see some activity in the late
afternoon and evening.
This system is still evolving to a worse case scenario.
Chris
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro
- Hunter S. Thompson
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