>> Panasonic is the only reason m43 still exists.
> That sounds close to stating Panasonic is the only reason Olympus ('
> imaging division) still exits. Can you elaborate on such a quiet bold
> statement?
This means that Olympus isn't solely responsible for Olympus anymore.
I can't imagine Olympus Imaging going away any time soon. There are
several reasons for that. For one thing, I believe that the overhead
factor that is applied to the imaging division is incorrectly applied
and essentially, the division is a place to dump expenses from other
parts of the corporation. I have no doubt that it's actually a
profitable business, but will never show a profit unless somebody
really screws up.
Secondly, this is a company (and division) that does an extensive
business working with other companies. Same as Nikon. One would think
that Nikon is in the business of selling cameras. Actually, it's the
cameras that act as the "calling card" for where the real money
is--business to business. Why isn't this shown on the balance sheet? I
think it's because this subcontracting work is buried in another
division within Olympus and the income for it is not appropriately
shown. So, we have expenses applied to the imaging division that
really don't belong there and income that should be applied to the
imaging division which is applied elsewhere. Investors EXPECT the
imaging division to suffer, so you can just slide stuff into it to
make the other divisions look better. There are ways of doing this
legally and Olympus has proven that they are better at sliding money
around than anybody could imagine. They almost got away with hiding a
BILLION DOLLARS in gambling losses. Making a million dollars move from
one division to another is child's play.
Thirdly, from a product management perspective, m43 has a shelf-life.
Protest all you want, but Olympus is all about developing new systems
and orphaning the old ones. I'll not dive into a history lesson, but I
can't think of a single company in the camera business that has
developed as many cameras and camera systems as Olympus. It is just a
matter of time before this system is also abandoned. If you look at
the time-on-market of the m43 system and compare it to previous
systems, we're well over half way through this cycle. The only real
variation on the theme is that with m43, Olympus worked backwards and
provided the "professional" camera last. The E-M1 will be followed by
one, maybe two more versions, but it really comes down to lens sales.
Watch the lens sales and road map carefully. When those drop off, the
system is dead.
Is any of this a bad thing? I think that Olympus has to do what
Olympus thinks Olympus has to do. The system isn't perfect, but that's
mostly due to technology not quite catching up to where we want the
products to be. The "global shutter" (all electronic shutter with no
curtains) is the true calling of m43. We're getting closer and closer.
Maybe two more years. The EVF has FINALLY reached a point of
suitability. The overall shape and size isn't quite right, yet, but
Panasonic improved this with the GH4.
Would I dissuade anybody from buying a m43 camera? Absolutely not!!!
The E-M1 and GH4 are among the best digital cameras ever made. The
lenses are incredible. What is not to like? But I do see signs where
Olympus has lost interest in m43 and Panasonic is the glue holding
this ship together. The entire SONY connection is further signs of
change in the m43 camp, but contractual obligations will force the
Oly-Pana relationship far past where Olympus wants it to be. If it
wasn't for Panasonic, there never would have been an E-M1.
Just maybe, this is a good thing. Instead of quitting the system
early, Panasonic is forcing Olympus to take m43 to maturity.
Again, I want to state that I'm not at all critical of Olympus on this
subject. They've managed to survive in spite of some horrendous
decisions. Forcing Maitani out was easily the worst decision they ever
made in the imaging division. When they kill m43, (not if, but when),
they'll do so because the competition has taken away their niche
market. Canon and Nikon have not jumped into the mirrorless pool, but
when they do, m43 will be yesterday's birdcage paper. Fujifilm and
SONY is certainly hurting m43, but nothing like what will happen when
Canon and Nikon pounds m43 into mulch.
And when that happens, Olympus will have a new format and a new system to sell.
It's all good.
--
Ken Norton
ken@xxxxxxxxxxx
http://www.zone-10.com
--
_________________________________________________________________
Options: http://lists.thomasclausen.net/mailman/listinfo/olympus
Archives: http://lists.thomasclausen.net/mailman/private/olympus/
Themed Olympus Photo Exhibition: http://www.tope.nl/
|