On 8/9/2011 4:18 PM, Chuck Norcutt wrote:
> Is that the claim? That the aircraft were grounded due to ash from the
> eruption of Eyjafjallajökull? If so then I don't know how you separate
> the effect of the ash cloud (which also contains massive amounts of CO2)
> from changes in emissions from reduced flying.
>
> Furthermore, I'll still bet that measuring the effect on global
> temperature is extraordinarily difficult and, in particular, assigning
> responsibility to the two different parts of the equation. I'm still
> willing to give 30 days to find a reputable citation.
Easy there, Calm down, Chuck.
I have skipped most of this thread, especially the links. As I understand the
thread itself, and your contributions, you
are saying that the data is questionable and the models downright useless.
I generally agree with that. We don't know all the important variables, don't
understand very well some of those we do
know, can't measure many of them very reliably, have limited historical data
for most - and, most of them are non-linear.
One of the roots of the discovery/development of chaos/uncertainty theory was
early work on weather prediction. In other
words, it was trying to predict short term climate events that led to the
discovery that it is not possible to predict
many things that we thought would one day be predictable. I believe that
climate change is one of those things.
So, as far as I am concerned, all the endless stuff written and said about it
is just chaff before the wind. Hence my
cursory attention to this thread.
Nevertheless, I think it would be good for both your health and the general
tenor of list discussion if you were to cool
down a little bit, not read what's not there into casual posts, cut those who
aren't being precise a little slack - and
be more careful yourself.
Boris referred to a well documented event, but did so without great precision
"grounding the aircraft of few countries
for three days produced noticeable temperature change". But you jumped to a
conclusion, that he was referring to global
temperatures, and ran off on a rant on that basis.
He was, in fact, referring to ground temperatures in North America in the three
days after 9/11. Whatever they may mean
in any larger context, the event is well documented.
<http://www.celsias.com/article/9-11-contrail-climate-effects-questioned/>
Serenity Moose
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