Some of my models are very much the real thing! :-)
The weather forecasts are surprisingly accurate if you really check -
they go adrift when an expected event comes a little earlier or later
than predicted (usually ruining your weekend). But still, it comes.
The problem is that we only notice when it isn't quite right - it
doesn't have meaning for us when it's accurate within a degree or two
or an hour or two so we don't remember and we develop an inaccurate
perception. Plus it is the untested 'conventional wisdom' that weather
reporting is inaccurate.
Of course, all that is irrelevant. They're modelling climate, not
weather.
Andrew Fildes
afildes@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
On 04/02/2010, at 8:23 AM, Wayne Harridge wrote:
> Bottom line: a MODEL is not the REAL THING just something that tries
> to represent the real thing to make the maths easier.
>
> How long have we been modelling weather ?
> How often does the forecast a WEEK in advance turn out to be
> significantly wrong ?
> What sort of accuracy would you expect from a weather model
> forecasting the weather 2 decades from today ?
--
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