It does not look like anyone has discovered anything new lately. It
is the same physics with some fine tuning. You can see with the tiny
sensors and pixel sites in the digicams that you are already taking a
big hit in pixel site diffraction and loss of detail at F8 and that
the noise reduction processes are beginning to smooth away detail,
sometimes at one step above base ISO. And there is poor dynamic range.
Seems to me that 10-12 MP in a DSLR is going to be the sweet spot for
some time. Certainly pixel counts will go higher, but you would not
want a 24MP DSLR any more than you would want a 10MP digicam. Well, I
would not. Images from the 5D are arguably as good or better than the
ones from the 1DsMkII. Companies that care about quality are
probably not going to push much beyond where they are now until some
new technology comes along. And small advances are not going to give
much more. There really is little difference between 10 and 12MP.
As for the 10 year camera life I think it is no accident that Leica
chose now to bring out the M8. More than enough quality to satisfy
anyone who shot film who does not have an anti-digital prejudice, and
unlikely to need updating for some time. It is a camera company that
depends on quality and longevity of their models.
If you are not convinced an option would be to develop a strategy to
keep up. Pick a system that has the lenses you want. And pick a
camera make that holds its value for a while. Buy an inexpensive 10
MP camera now for that system and when advances come along, sell
quickly to cash out and become an early adopter. I was amazed at how
some Nikons held their value for 6 months or more after new models
came out. I imagine Canon does the same.
Or get that digital Hasselblad. It will be around in 10 years,
although the back will probably get "improved".
Winsor
Long Beach, California, USA
On Dec 18, 2006, at 12:00 PM, AG Schnozz wrote:
> Um. I don't think so. Based on history, it will continue
> unabated until the technology has matured to the point where
> people no longer see the need or desire to upgrade. There
> aren't too many people that don't like shiny new cars and that
> technology is over 100 years old. If you look at the pixel
> density in a cell-phone camera or 10mp pocket-cam, we have the
> ability to put probably over 70MP in a FF-35mm camera today.
> With improving in-camera processing, the noise-floor should be
> ok.
>
> Just a couple of years ago we *thought* that 6MP in APS was
> considered to be "good enough" for the long-haul. 10-15MP is
> the current "generally attainable", and 20-30MP being the
> high-ground. But go back six years and 3MP was "good enough"
> and 6MP was the high-ground. I see no end in sight. Moore's
> Law is alive and well.
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