Winsor Crosby wrote:
>......................Probably Panasonic will
>sell an Oly DSLR with their name on it and possibly a range of
>relatively cheap lenses with the Leica name. Either way they will
>steal sales from Olympus rather than helping sales especially if they
>do like they did with the Leica nameplate, significantly undercut it
>in price. So the profit margin for both the Olympus and Panasonic
>DSLR turns out to be pretty slim, just when they are trying to
>accumulate capital for further development.
>
>
Obviously some risky business here. But perhaps necessary. I'll bet Oly
thinks their current position is just a little too weak, better than the
little guys, but not really strong enough compared to the elephants.
They can see the handwriting on the wall for the little players and
don't want to end up down there.
I think what Oly is looking for here is validation in the broader
consumer mind of the long term viability of the 4/3 system. Getting that
big brand name out there with them is a way to try to accomplish that. I
think their hope is to establish the 4/3 mount as the really solid third
mount and actually increase its overall share. That way, they have a
chance of increasing their share sightly in the short run while firming
up the overall long term position of 4/3.
As Thom points out, nobody is going to be making much money in the low
end for a while, at least. So Panasonic brings out a low end DSLR, their
own or a rebranded Oly and another limited line of lenses. If their
marketing/name strength moves some cameras, that puts more mounts out
there. That means more mounts to sell Oly's much broader lens line to.
And I imagine the high end lenses are much more profitable than entry
level DSLRs and lenses.
Then as 4/3 increases its share and establishes its better long term
viability, more low end users start to upgrade and more pros who have
stayed out of a niche brand find it viable. I think Oly would be more
than happy to let Panasonic have most of the low end of a growing mount
and stick with the higher end amateur and pro end. Panasonic may even be
able, with a bit of Oly knowledge about the SLR mechanics, etc., to
produce a $499 DSLR that's competitive enough to get a bunch more 4/3
mounts out there in the world. Heaven knows they know a thing or two
about mass manufacturing and marketing.
To do this, it doesn't matter much whether they help kill off one or
more of the hanger on brands and/or nibble a little out of C&N. I'll bet
Panasonic would just LOVE to stifle Sony's move into DSLRs.
Moose
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