"A digital pricing evolution will further bury film. "
Crap. Usual digital person's lack of understanding of real world.
"As camera phones continue to explode in sales, and reach 3 megapixels in
resolution, they will kill the low-end of the current digital camera market.
"
Perhaps, but see final comment.
"By the end of the year, a fairly full featured brand name 5 megapixel
camera will sell for less than $300 "
Maybe by then, but a stretch.
"(as will a 3 MP camera-cell phone), "
Bigger stretch, as the market won't demand higher pixels.
"and there will be three or more digital SLRs available for under $1000 "
Good chance of at least one, but development seems slower than expected.
Could just as easily predict failure of Foveon sensor (without regard to
quality or lack thereof).
"(perhaps even a full frame sensor digital SLR for under $3000, too). "
more optimistic!
"The release of newly designed film-based 35mm cameras will become far less
frequent, as digital cameras will outsell film cameras by a 3 to 1 margin by
year's end. "
Doesn't mean much, as predictions are that the digital camera pipeline will
begin to fill soon, and then growth of BOTH will fall. The market for SLRs
falling more accurately shows the decline of photography as a hobby. Hobbies
in general are in decline, though, so don't feel alone. Why do you think the
tool companies sponsor those shows on TV, like This Old House, etc. What we
need is for HGTV to do a This Old Darkroom.
"The main interaction most consumers will have with companies like Kodak and
Fuji is through kiosks (at drug stores, airports, vacation spots, etc.) that
spit out prints from images stored on Compact Flash cards."
Hmmmmm.....the biggest problem for Fuji and Kodak is the fact that only
about 14% of digital images shot are printed. I'm for one surprised that the
grandparent's market hasn't changed this, but no one has been able to
overcome this.
I'd be safer predicting that Kodak would fail/breakup in 5 years, but I
don't think they will be able to indentify shat their core business actually
is. Note the board/stockholder's response to the CEO's statement about going
all digital. That old, worn out film is still a big cash cow.
Bill Pearce
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