On Wed, 20 Jan 1999 02:46:29 EST, PCACala@xxxxxxx jammed all night, and by
sunrise was overheard remarking:
> Gary S. writes:
> > IMHO, it's too little too late. And in my estimation, it [new fraud
> > preventive measures] won't help them [ebay] a bit.
I disagree. Mainly because, right now, e-bay is still growing, not
shrinking, despite what fraud does occur. This is a good indication that
it's not prevalent enough in most users' experience to be a problem. New
measures might actually do something to help, and even if they don't, it
will look like e-bay's trying to do something. In the computer business,
most success stories are built as much on looks as anything else.
The problem with launching a competitive service is critical mass. If a
seller knows they're likely to get many more eyes viewing their sale on
e-bay than elsewhere, they aren't going elsewhere. Selling on e-bay is
relatively safe -- the worst that can happen is that the auction winner
doesn't pay up. So you either sell to number two, or re-list the item.
It's much riskier for the buyer, of course, but buyers will go where the
merchandise is, sellers go where the most buyers are, etc. Critical
mass. The same reason people always complain about Windows, yet
Microsoft still sells 100 million copies a year at ever increasing
prices.
> The run of the mill computer user seems to accept more bugs and inconviences
> in computer related pursuits than they would elsewhere.
This is absolutely true, but that's the modern computer experience.
Fifteen years ago no one would have accepted the level of bugs you find
today in supposedly "professional" applications. But only a tiny
fraction of today's computer users were doing the same thing five years
ago, much less fifteen. The amazing levels of growth in the business
make it easy to garner acceptance for the unacceptable. What were once
vices are now habits.
> Folks kept writing
> off AOL because of snafus over growing pains, not that they have solved things
> yet. Many didn't want to leave behind their already established AOL e-mail
> addresses, so they stayed through the worst of times. Others were too naive
> to choose anything else. We all know what Microsoft has been able to get away
> with, esp. in getting folks to believe their promise to make things easier
> through upgrades. Meanwhile, they tell us where we want to go today whether
> or not we want to go there!
Well, it also helps that the leaders are the worst offenders. You can't
find a much worse ISP service than AOL, but they're also the guys that
handhold the beginner, who doesn't know any better. So their level of
service becomes acceptable. You can't find a buggier wordprocessor than
Microsoft Word (I have used them all), but since it comes with every PC,
it's the industry standard.
If Olympus had at some point decided to do something terribly annoying
in their camera designs (well, aside from dropping the OM line in favor
of ZLRs), they simply would have lost customers. If Canon and Nikon
decided to do something bad together, it would be nearly impossible for
this bad thing to not become the new standard. And this is a mature
industry, nothing like the explosive computer business.
> So, with ebay, buyers and sellers will likely stick with them through the
> worst of times, because they don't want to leave behind their treasured
> Feedback Ratings showing their trustworthiness in ecommerce. And they will be
> appeased by promises that things will get better. Heck, maybe Steve Case will
> even become their pitchman.
> As computer professionals, we want to believe that the strongest and most
> innovative products will survive.
Actually, it's more like we hope one day that at least one innovative
product will survive. How long have you been in the computer business?
As I said, looks over content. And of course, your position in the
market helps, too. What most computer professionals failed to discover
over the years, me included, is that, for professional or consumer
markets, it's primarily a marketing battle, not one of technology. This
basically sucks when you're the technology guy with better ideas, but
it's a rare case to see better technology go anywhere, much less
triumph. Not that it's impossible, I hope (I am still in the business...)
--
Dave Haynie | V.P. Technology, Met@box Infonet, AG | http://www.metabox.de
Be Dev #2024 | NB851 Powered! | Amiga 2000, 3000, 4000, PIOS One
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