Forecasts more than two or three days into the future must be largely guesswork
anyway, Chris. You must have seen that in your flying days.
Since the BBC started a contract with a US company to supply its weather
forecasts, dumping the Met Office, I’m convinced that the service has
deteriorated. It now has forecasts to two weeks ahead; the BBC was conned.
Chris
C M I Barker | Gamlingay
> On 30 Aug 2019, at 14:44, <christrask@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> <christrask@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> The forecast for Dorian has changed significantly in the past couple of
> days. NHC shows that it will make landfall as a category 4 storm on Tuesday
> near Miami. It will then go northward along the Florida Peninsula into far
> southeastern Georgia, get caught up in the jetstream, and then pushed back
> out to sea somewhere near Jacksonville or Savannah.
>
> The forecast is changing noticeably from one day to the next, and it's
> possible that Dorian will reach category 5, given it's ground speed and the
> sea surface temperature.
>
> The majority of models displayed on the South Florida Hurricane page show
> Dorian making a sharp turn northward and then moving along the coast as far
> as Charleston.
>
> https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots
>
>>
>> Keep your water wings handy, Jim.
>>
>>
>>> This morning the GFS forecast shows that the remnants of Hurricane
>>> Dorian will be in far eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina next
>>> Wednesday.
>>>
>>
>
>
> Chris
>
> When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro
> - Hunter S. Thompson
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