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Re: [OM] Hurricane Matthew

Subject: Re: [OM] Hurricane Matthew
From: Charles Geilfuss <charles.geilfuss@xxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wed, 5 Oct 2016 10:45:35 -0400
I saw that as well, Chuck. I may just stay home where the beer is cold and
the brats are hot.

Charlie

On Wed, Oct 5, 2016 at 6:05 AM, Chuck Norcutt <chucknorcutt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> wrote:

> NOAA's 5 AM track for Wednesday 10/5 shows a significant difference from
> the previous several forecasts.  Previously, the location for "2 AM Sat"
> was right on the coast at the North Carolina/South Carolina state lines.
> Now it's near the Florida/Georgia line and a significant distance from the
> coast.  This shows a significant slowing of the path of the storm and also
> a significant weakening.  IIRC, the storm was still a Major (M) hurricane
> at that latitude in previous forecasts.
>
> Also, this morning came (to me) the "great clarifier".  Governor Haley had
> previously announced a complete coastal evacuation for the state. This made
> no sense to me for a Category 2 storm.  Horry County (my county) has three
> evacuation zones (A, B, C) all based on flooding from storm surge.  By my
> calculations only Zone A (most vulnerable) should be affected in a Category
> 2 storm whereas, it should take a Category 4 storm to flood zone C.  This
> morning they finally announced only Zone A is affected by the evacuation
> order.  The neighbors who elected to leave last night may not be amused.
>
> My hurricane panels have been installed so I should be in good shape for
> protection from wind damage.  I managed to get the original supplier to
> install my panels.  That was a great relief.  I have been fairly quiet on
> the list lately since a week ago I had my left knee replaced.  I am in no
> physical condition to do much of anything.
> (actually re-replaced.  I had it done 2 years ago but the prosthesis had
> come detached from the bone and was causing me significant pain.)
> Lesson: don't have knee surgery during hurricane season.
>
> Chuck Norcutt
>
>
>
> On 10/4/2016 4:05 PM, Charles Geilfuss wrote:
>
>>   SC governor has ordered coastal SC evacuation beginning 3pm Wednesday.
>> They will reverse I-26 so all lanes are west-bound. My family and I will
>> shelter in place at the hospital which is 30 miles inland. All coastal
>> county schools are closed Wednesday through Friday. Stay safe, Chuck, eye
>> may come ashore near you.
>>
>> Charlie
>>
>> On Tue, Oct 4, 2016 at 10:06 AM, Chris Trask <christrask@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> wrote:
>>
>>      The track forecast for Hurricane Matthew has matured well in the past
>>> 48 hours, and there is now a good concensus between NHC, GFS, and UKMET.
>>> Overall, Matthew will pass northwestward along the length of the Bahamas,
>>> arriving just off the Florida coast on Friday.  It will then follow along
>>> the coast, possibly moving slightly inland north of Savannah on Saturday
>>> and near Cape Hatteras on Sunday.
>>>
>>>      Adding to this is the likely formation of a second tropical cyclone,
>>> the disturbance presently 500 miles northeast of Puerto Rico, moving to
>>> the
>>> northwest at about 10 to 15 MPH.  The low pressure system approaching
>>> from
>>> the west may actually cause Matthew to strengthen northeast of NYC.
>>>
>>>      UKMET has Matthew passing over Norfolk, Chesapeake Bay, Dover, New
>>> Jersey, NYC, Boston, Portsmouth, and then into New Brunswick on Monday.
>>>
>>>      This is going to be a significant rain event for the entire Atlantic
>>> coast.
>>>
>>>
>>> Chris
>>>
>>> When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro
>>>      - Hunter S. Thompson
>>> --
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