I was a bit surprised this morning to see that the forecast for Hurricane
Matthew stated that it would strengthen to category 3 on Sunday. I'm even more
surprised to see that it has already strengthened to category 4. The storm
will pass over the east end of Jamaica early Monday, just east of Kingston. It
will pass over Santiago, Cuba (and Guantanamo Bay) late Monday.
I cannot recall ever seeing a tropical cyclone develop to this strength
this quickly, and an NHC forecaster (Brennan) has used the word "remarkable" in
the most recent discussion. The NHC forecaster this morning (Beven) stated
that the uncertainty in the track had to do with the mid-altitude ridge of high
pressure that just to the north of Matthew. This is probably part of the ridge
of high pressure that appeared a few months ago, stretching from Taiwan to
Gibraltar that has had a lot of effect on eastern Pacific tropical cyclones.
It's a result of the northward shift in the downdraft of the Hadley Cell.
Strength will diminish to category 1 when Matthew passes over Cuba, then
remain stable while crossing the Bahamas. That's as far as the NHC forecast
goes at this time. Sea surface temperature in the Bahamas is quite warm, and
is warmer than average along the Atlantic coast, so some degree of
strengthening should be anticipated. A lot will depend on shearing winds
associated with an advancing low pressure system that will interact with
Matthew in the vicinity of Cape Hatteras next Saturday.
>
> Yep, Matthew reached hurricane strength early this morning, which was
>about a day ahead of expectations. GFS forecasts pretty much agree that it
>will be just offshore at Cape Hatteras on Wednesday, but after that the track
>forecasts diverge, which is typical when looking at GFS forecasts beyond
>seven days.
>
> Save your Dixie cups!
>
Chris
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro
- Hunter S. Thompson
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