>
>>
>>The mild temps this winter for around here. Temps running 8-12C. avg.
>>Normal is 6-7C. Pushing mid 50's today with some of the usual suspects
>>hitting 15C+ Not Moose-ish but the yard is liking it.
>>
<<SNIP>>
>
> Our temperatures here have also been mild, about 10F above normal for the
> most of
>the past four weeks. The lack of sufficient rain has had the wildflower
>season in
>jeopardy, but on Monday and again on Friday we are predicted to have some
>widespread
>rain, though the amount has yet to be determined. If we can get a half inch
>or more
>total then we'll have the season salvaged, though not entirely.
>
Shortly aftr I wrote that, I posted a weather warning on a hiking list for
southern Arizona, part of which was:
>
> More ominous is a second large cutoff low that will affect us starting
> Friday, with
>widespread moisture developing rapidly in the morning and continuing into
>Saturday.
>
> Neither of these storms are very strong, but they are both predicted to
> deliver a
>good deal of moisture to our area. If this plays out as presently predicted,
>we can
>expect a decent wildflower season beginning next month.
>
Six hours later, I looked at the forecasting charts again and saw that things
had greatly deteriorated. The latest look at this second storm shows that the
amount of moisture predicted has increased substantially. The rain should
begin very early Friday, and will continue at least through Sunday.
Far more serious is what will be taking place in the central US and
southern Canada. A second mass of Northern Pacific moisture along the jet
stream will arrive by way of western Canada, merging with the southwestern mass
late Friday. The result will be a massive area of dense moisture that will
cover the entire Intermountain region from Canada to Mexico, extending further
south beyond Baja. The combination of the southwesterly flow from the
Pineapple Express and the northwesterly jet stream flow around a large
low-pressure system centered over Hudson Bay and Newfoundland will push the
moisture eastward, covering everything from the Rockies to Maine and Georgia by
Sunday, and the draw of moisture from the southwest and northwest will not
abate. At this time, there is no reliable indication in the GFS plots to
suggest when it will subside, and the cutoff low will remain in place over
northern Baja on Sunday with no indication of movement.
This is the largest weather system seen so far this season, and it may
well make everything seen in the midwest and northeast so far seem like a bad
memory.
Let's hope that I'm being premature about this and that the prediction
will moderate. If not, then everything east of the Rockies is in for one
helluva ride.
Chris
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro
- Hunter S. Thompson
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