I can't accept that, I'm afraid.
Trial and error is a legitimate experimental technique which implies testing
various likely scenarios until one works. And trying more of them to see if
another one works even better. It's not just 'having a go and hoping for the
best'.
I'm reading a novel at present about someone trying to develop an artificial
intelligence (AI computer). Nothing special but entertaining. The essence of it
is that AI should at least partly mimic the usual human routine rather than the
usual digital processing - the first response is a fast reaction based on
prior knowledge and it may be wrong or at least only partly right. The second
part is the the close reasoning informed by it, involving the collection of
data, compiling it into evidence, developing an hypothesis and proceeding to
test it to develop an explanatory theory.
'Guesswork' is only the first, reactive part of the process. You should not
stop there and it is demeaning to style all scientific hypotheses and theories
as such. By your definition, the design of the roof over your head or the air
beneath your wings is based on a guess and I'd find that…threatening. You
really, really need a better word.
Andrew Fildes
afildes@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
www.soultheft.com
Author/Publisher:
The SLR Compendium:
revised edition -
http://blur.by/19Hb8or
The TLR Compendium
http://blur.by/1eDpqN7
On 22/03/2014, at 9:25 AM, Chris Barker wrote:
> I can imagine that it is academically interesting, Andrew, but I describe the
> current (and previous) attempts to analyse the Big Bang as guesswork. This
> description is based on watching documentaries on TV and on listening to
> their reasoning during that sort of show. I’d admit to its being informed
> guesswork, really. I remember the day at school when I realised that maths
> in some instances was trial and error . . .
--
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