On 12/2/2012 7:56 AM, Chuck Norcutt wrote:
> Someone asked me privately whether my use of the term "chaotic" with
> respect to climate was a technical term he was unfamiliar with.
A particularly apt application of the term, as early computer weather modeling
work was one root of the development of
Chaos Theory. See James Gleick, Chaos.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos:_Making_a_New_Science>
> I hadn't thought about it earlier but perhaps others do not know it
> either. My answer:
>
> On 12/2/2012 9:57 AM, Chuck Norcutt wrote:
>> Yes, a technical and mathematical term. See:
>> <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory>
"This happens even though these systems are deterministic, meaning that their
future behavior is fully determined by
their initial conditions, with no random elements involved."
Interesting. That doesn't agree with my couple of decades old, non-expert
understanding. I seem to recall that one
aspect was the effects of factors that may be not only non-linear in the
moment, but also over time. An example would be
a mechanical clock. As the parts don't move smoothly, but with stops and
starts, the friction between them crosses the
most non-linear stage over and over again.
In spite of the optimistic things they taught in my physics classes, that kind
of friction is not deterministic, unless
one distinguishes between what the materials and situation determine and things
that we may determine and predict.
Then, of course, the friction changes the materials in non-linear ways that we
cannot ever accurately model and predict.
Perhaps I misunderstand the precise meaning of deterministic in this context.
Or perhaps that part has been moved from
Chaos Theory somewhere else?
Yes, I've read non-technical stuff about Uncertainty Theory, fascinating stuff,
but not, I think, what I'm talking about
here.
Confuse A Moose
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What if the Hokey Pokey *IS* what it's all about?
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