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Re: [OM] OT: Weekend Weather Activity

Subject: Re: [OM] OT: Weekend Weather Activity
From: Chris Barker <ftog@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sat, 7 Jul 2012 06:35:36 +0100
Don't forget, Chris, that it's mostly guesswork; based on science, but still 
guesswork.

Our weather guessers have the reason for the weather as a strong jetstream 
waving from Canada and putting the CONUS to the south of it and the UK to the 
north.  You get the dry weather, we get the very heavy downpours, almost 
monsoon-like in their intensity.

It was only recently that I worked out why TAFs have probability levels only up 
to 40% (PROB40 TEMPO etc . . .): it's because 50% is virtual certainty in 
forecasting terms, so there is no point in giving a level of assurance above 
40%.

We are definitely in strange weather systems.

Chris

On 7 Jul 2012, at 02:30, Chris Trask wrote:

>    In the meantime, a large regional low will develop and strength over
> eastern Quebec and Labrador, causing the path of the jetstream to bend
> sharply southeast.  This cold air will interact with warm moist air over the
> Eastern Seaboard, and the storm activity may well extend at least into
> Tuesday.
> 
>    Y'all watch out.

-- 
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