>
> Yeah, I was just mentioning weather modelling as an example of modelling
> which has a long history but is still not good at predicting too far into
> the future. Modelling of climate hasn't been happening for as long so I
> wouldn't expect even the same level of accuracy as weather modelling.
No, but the modeling can be run against historical data. The model should be
able to accurately predict the "future" from a point in history.
Unfortunately, all the majority of the models have implemented correction
offsets to track variations caused by volcanoes, the rise of man, termite
belches and Al Gore's expanding waistline and receding hairline of glacial
proportions.
There are multiple long-term cycles that affect earth's climate. A classic
"example" of global warming is the Antarctic's calving of ice shelves. These
are on a forty year cycle and if history is a guide, these should settle
down here shortly. How about solar cycles? El Nino's? Even the launching of
rockets and shuttles into space can have an affect on the upper atmosphere
as is evident by the sudden appearance of noctoluminescent clouds after
shuttle launches.
Is global warming happening? DUH!!! Of course. It's been going on since the
last ice age. Is it accelerating? Probably, but that's because throughout
history there are certain triggers which cause cascading changes. However,
has history shows, it only takes an earthquake, meteor or volcano to alter
the global or local climates for decades. So the oceans rise--so what. We
just move up the hillsides. It may have cost less to relocate the entire
flooded portion of New Orleans than to rebuild it and just delay the
inevitable.
Nature exists in a balance--many of the religions/philosophies are built on
that premise. Throughout history, when something gets out of control in one
way, nature will find a way to counter that. A closed-loop example of this
is the balance of moose and wolves on Isle Royale. Maybe Hurricane Katrina
was nature's attempt to address the termite infestation in New Orleans.
AG Schnozz
--
_________________________________________________________________
Options: http://lists.thomasclausen.net/mailman/listinfo/olympus
Archives: http://lists.thomasclausen.net/mailman/private/olympus/
Themed Olympus Photo Exhibition: http://www.tope.nl/
|