> From: <chucknorcutt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> I don't accept the analogy.
Yea, I wasn't very happy with it, either. But it does illustrate the
trend among those who think things are just dandy on the ol' planet.
> A closer one is that the gravity model predicts that he'll be at the
> 15th floor at time t. Instead, he finds that he is already down to
> the 2nd floor at time t. You can say" "Ooops! We need to adjust
> the gravitational constant." or recognize that something much
> different is involved that it totally outside the model.
And while you're figuring out how to fix the model, two floors pass,
and WHAP! You're a goner.
It's like the lillies in a pond that double every day. When the pond
is half full, you can look around and say, "Hey, there's plenty of
room here!" Then a day later, it's all about starvation. Do we really
care if they double every day, or every six hours? Someone is still
going to starve when that pond fills up.
It may well be something is wrong with the model. Heck, that's almost
certain! The complex web of life, which is the dance between matter
and energy -- mother earth and father sun, if you will -- is far too
complex to model accurately and completely.
But what I don't understand is the idea that because something is
wrong with the model, we should not take corrective measures.
As Andrew pointed out in the prisoner's dilemma, the "lose-lose"
situation is a total disaster, whereas the worst we end up by taking
mitigating measures is the GDP goes up by the money spent on
mitigation. People will make money either way. But some who are making
lots of money on the status quo will make less when smart
entrepreneurs make more on the mitigating technology. And they are the
ones funding political campaigns, not the entrepreneurs and venture
capitalists.
:::: The time is always right to do what is right -- Martin Luther
King, Jr.
:::: Jan Steinman <http://www.EcoReality.org>
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