On Sunday, May 25, 2008 05:00, Nathan wrote:
> Larry, I have no idea from where you have the impression that I am
> somehow wealthy and can ignore the cost of fuel and other costs of
> living. I can assure you this is not so..
The point I think Larry is making it that it is easy to assume what is easy
for me to do is neccesarily easy for someone else to do. There have been
points in my life that to ask me to come up with a $100 was no different than
asking me to come up with $1,000,000.
>
> So yes, the $4/gallon gas in the US is not a good thing for the
> individual car driver in the short term, but it is definitely good
> for the environment, for the US society as a whole, and, given the
> size of the US and its greenhouse gas emissions, for the world.
Nathan I think that your analysis is clear and well thought out but there are
several points that I disagree with you on.
"Or take houses: conversion of existing houses to natural gas or solar
can be difficult and expensive."
The assumption that I disagree with you on is that there can be or will be a
wholesale conversion of homes from fuel oil to natural gas. At least in
Upstate New York I believe that any community of any size is already
converted to natural gas. There is usually no economic presure to convert
because NG is in general more expensive that fuel oil and the efficency of
the furnaces are not that much greater. The choice to install NG has to do
with the the cost of the equipment, it's reliability and I believe building
code many times.
"but it is definitely good for the environment",
This is true only if the cost of energy causes the US to use less energy and
greener energy for lack of a better word. I don't see it going that way at
least for a while. The first think that I see happening is much more use of
coal, both as a nation and as individuals. The blacksmith that moved in to a
shop a few doors down installed a coal furnace because it was the cheapest
way to heat his shop by something like two. The second thing that I know will
happen is that people that live on the edge of the economy, both physically
and financially will get much more creative in how they heat. Can we say
burning tires,old furniture etc. I know that this has been done in the past
and will be done in the future. I know we are not talking about a large
number of people here, but it doesn't take a large number of people.
"for the US society as a whole"
This a very over simplified and simplistic but see high energy prices
accelerating the problem that we have in this country right now of wealth
concentrating into a handful of people and companies. given the
" size of the US and its greenhouse gas emissions, for the world"
This assumes that as energy costs increase that the US will do the same amount
of things with less energy. I see many of those things being done in other
places in the world like China with more and dirtier energy.
I'm going to ad just a few comments. I would love to see solar energy become
the main source of energy for the world. I believe that the first society
that achieves that will have a long run as an economic and cultural power.
Our main source of energy in the world right now is mining (oil coal,gas,
uranium). While we all disagree on the length of time it will last I can't
believe that any reason person believes it will last indefinitely. Will
anyone give me a 100 years or 200. I bet I have no takers at 500 which is
about the time most western societies have existed.
-Doug
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