Ok, I usually just lurk on the list but I couldn't let this OT topic go by...
Switchgrass looks a lot better to people far away who've not tried to grow it.
Sitting in the middle of central Illinois and having tried to it's not such a
wonderful crop. Listening to my dozens of friends who actually farm for living
and have also tried to grow it makes it sound even less attractive.
A few details about it -
It's a dry season grass that does very poorly with competition. So if you have
land that isn't well drained forget it. You also have to somehow keep all the
other more hardy, native to the area prairie vegetation out of your
switchgrass.
Good luck on that. The chemicals that "control" other plants also "control" the
switchgrass.
Now if by some luck you do get it to grow well the window to harvest and
convert it from grass to alcohol is narrow. So unlike corn, they'll be no more
"leave it sit in a pile until we need it" processing.
Use it now or lose it. This will likely require huge processing facilities that
are quite busy one or two months a year but dormant the rest of the time.
Possible, but not something a lot of investors want to see when they look at
ROI.
Maybe with some genetic engineering to make it more hardy and chemically
resistant it might be an easier crop to grow. Maybe, but that's not this year
and maybe not even this decade...
Some general ethanol notes -
We keep hearing about how byproducts like distillers grain will somehow help to
moderate the price of using corn as a feedstock for ethanol conversion. It
hasn't happened. Look at corn prices now compared to a couple of years ago.
Look at the cost of anything that uses those products like milk.
Those new higher prices are the direct result of using the same item for food
stocks as we use for fuel stocks. Pay for it at the pump or at the grocery
store. What's the real difference?
And there is one little mentioned but important item, something that
potentially could dwarf all of the other problems with ethanol. We don't really
know what effect all of these conversion plants will have on our aquifer. All
the cheap fuel in the world won't help us if we have no water to continue to
grow things or even to drink.
As far as corn and beans rotation being a risky thing to continue with the
answer is straightforward. Those two crops are grown here almost to the
exclusion of anything else for one simple reason. Farmers can maximize their
profit per acre with those crops.
That's the same reason farmers in Kansas and Nebraska are now growing corn and
soybeans. Farmers that once grew wheat and other crops. Once automated
irrigation became cost effective they have begun to shift to the two crops that
bring in the most $$.
Ethanol might be viable secondary fuel. Just long as we make it from something
like sugar cane we can import cheaply if allowed. Don't expect that to happen
soon though, votes, lobbyists, farm programs, and tariffs being as they are.
Until somethings change fundamentally, the whole ethanol business is nothing
more than white collar welfare to farmers and the ethanol producers like ADM.
And let us not forget the subsidies to the "blenders" who mix all of that
ethanol into our gasoline. We know those "blenders" well. Why they're our old
friends, the oil companies...
--
Jim
---------- Original Message ----------------------------------
From: AG Schnozz <agschnozz@xxxxxxxxx>
Reply-To: olympus@xxxxxxxxxx
Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2008 11:36:01 -0800 (PST)
>
>> Exactly! The same goes for ethanol, which by various studies
>> appears to have an energy gain of unity or less -- it may take
>> more energy (from fossil fuel) to produce than it contains.
>
>Those particular "various studies" have long since been
>debunked--especially when you consider that the distiller's grains
>are still usable as feed for our critters we eat. So, all that corn
>isn't exactly going to waste. Oh, and all those critters are
>providing wonderful fertilizer to reduce the need for chemical
>nitrogen input. In fact, there has been a huge increase in hog
>production here JUST for the fertilizer. Turns out they are very
>productive fertilizer generators.
>
>However, your basic premise is correct. It is a wasteful use of a
>resource. But, we have the capability to grow whatever is needed to
>feed the world many times over. It is still a distribution issue.
>
>Switchgrass and other materials like that are capable of being turned
>into fuels and once the market demands those materials, the farmers
>will be more than happy to step up and grow them. They couldn't care
>less what they grow as long as they can make a living doing so.
>
>Growing regions like Iowa, Illinois and Indiana have an extremely
>dangerous monoculture with almost exclusive production of corn and
>soybeans. Diversifying is very important as all it takes is for one
>tiny little bug or fungus to evolve and it's all over but the
>shouting.
>
>AG
>
>
>
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