I have a slightly different "take" on the recent Kodak announcement and
it's more optimistic. I see it as an industry-wide consolidation . . .
that the market share for Kodak's projectors will shift to other
manufacturers (e.g. Leica) and increase their volume, at least for the time
being. I don't believe projector manufacturing will disappear
entirely. It's a matter of who shakes out and who remains to scoop up the
market that's dropped by others. Not that your thought about others
following suit hadn't crossed my mind.
I read some time ago that "slide shows" are more common in Europe than in
the U.S. and am hoping that this still holds true. IMHO, Kodak is flailing
about to prop itself up and as a result is dropping marginal product lines
(measured in return on net assets [RONA] in terms of revenue [versus profit]).
Many companies want to skim the extremely high volume products and ignore
the rest for niche markets . . . Kodak among them . . . to make killings on
the "cash cows." I firmly believe that Kodak (marketing) would, if it
thought it could get away with it, tout one single film emulsion for all of
film photography. They've hinted at it in the past, especially with
consumer films, and with parallel attempts to consolidate film lines (the
unsuccessfuly attempt to kill Tri-X when TMax was released comes to
mind). Problem is, their marketdroids have yet to successfully convince
everyone that one film really can do anything and everything. At least
some measurable (and noticeable) percentage of of the public is too
educated about photography and film to believe it.
As to film dropping below critical mass threshold, it's my hope that market
saturation of digital cameras will hit first and market share will swing
back some to a balance with film use (and consumption). It will
eventually; it's a matter of when. A number of folks I've talked with
regarding digital camera use are disappointed with some of its major
weaknesses (noise, inability to cope with very low light, complete
dependence on computer operating system drivers, etc.). Again, a more
optimistic view; digital currently has the "must have new toy" mania like
the "pet rock" and it cannot last forever. There will be a shakeout among
competitors' excessive production capacities. When it happens, it won't be
a very pretty sight.
-- John
At 09:52 PM 11/1/03, Gary Edwards wrote:
John, my point was, as a lament, that the others may not be far behind. I
worry that film-based photography will drop below the critical mass
threshold and disappear (or become prohibatively expensive) while I am still
breathing.
But, I'm a little down this week.
Gary
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