At 5:14 PM +0000 1/7/03, olympus-digest wrote:
>Date: Tue, 7 Jan 2003 23:27:27 +0800
>From: "C.H.Ling" <chling@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: Re: [OM] The coming generation of 35mm CCD digital cameras (EOS
>future)
>
>According to the law you used it seems you have not counted the inflation.
True. Moore's Law is independent of inflation, so price estimates made with
Moore's Law are in "constant dollars", and one then adds any correction for
inflation.
>BTW, you think five year's 2-3K will be equal to today's 1K?
No, although it depends on where one asks such a question. In the US,
inflation has been running at something like 30er year. I don't know the
inflation rate in Hong Kong, but my impression is that it too is low, probably
the same as the US.
In five years, with 3 0nflation, today's US $1K will become (1.03^5)($1K)=
$1.16K, which is far short of $2-3K.
The highest inflation rate the US got was ~210er year, in the 1970s. Reagan
put a stop to it.
In some South American countries the inflation rate is very high, like 400er
month, if I recall the newspaper accounts. The end is neigh; they will soon
collapse. Even if it's only 400er year.
>- ----- Original Message -----
>From: "Joe Gwinn" <joegwinn@xxxxxxxxx>
>
> > I agree that the EOS line will stay at its present price point, US $2-3K.
>The point I was making is that present-day EOS-1Ds technology will become
>available in bodies costing US $1K in about five years, not that EOS bodies
>will cost $1K. The EOS bodies of five years hence will cost the inflated
>equivalent of $2-3K, and will be stuffed with the latest goodies, to justify
>the price.
The point being made here is that Can*on will always keep the EOS-1Ds
equivalent at $2-3K in constant dollars, because Can*on has discovered that
their customers will pay that price, so Can*on's job is to design to that
price, time after time.
All manufacturers do the same thing.
Joe Gwinn
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