It will be a while before digital systems (camera, photo printers,
etc) will equal the quality of large format at any price. An 8x10
image contains (7.75*25.4*100)(9.75*25.4*100)= 487,499,025 tricolor
pixels, or 975 Mpixels (as digital cameras are usually advertised).
By Moore's Law, this will take 18*log2(975/4)= 142.7 months, or 12
years to come down to the price of 4 Mpix camera. This would likely
be the minimum delay, as the market for large format is far smaller
than for 35mm, so far less money will be invested in pusing into the
large format market. Also, the quality requirements and
expectations of the 8x10 crowd far exceed that of the 35mm crowd,
even the pros.
How many photographers shoot with 8X10 view cameras anymore? Not
many, I'd expect. My guess is that they are a minor, minor fraction
of the no. of photographers out there, and even a small fraction of
working pros. A lot of pros do shoot view cameras with Phase One or
LEAF digital backs, though.
You're also making an assumption that Moore's law is dictating the
pace of digital back/camera development. From what Iwould guess,
just anecdotally, is that it is even faster than that. For example,
in the eighteen mos. or so since Canon's first DSLR became available
(beginning of 2001) we have seen the resolution go from 3 megapixels
to 11. From what I can see, it's like motorcycle tire development,
they just keep getting batter and better!
I would expect that we will see the advent of a 6-8 megapixel digital
SLR that is the equivalent to an EOS 3 that will sell for $1000 in
two years at the very outside, and quite possibly within a year....
Stephen Scharf
--
2001 CBR600F4i - Fantastic!
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