The market in Australia may preface what will happen in the US. As
someone from Denmark pointed out, some pieces are *very* hard to
come by in smaller markets protected by high tariff barriers on used
gear. This forces people out of the system earlier than in
the US. What has happened here is that
- some common pieces are cheap: OM-1 and OM-2 bodies,
50mm f/1.8's etc.
- some rarer pieces are relatively expensive compared with
the equivalent Nikon e.g. 35mm shift ($800 Zuiko, $350 Nikkor -
all prices are in AUD where 1 AUD = 0.64 US) and 300 f/4.5
($600 Zuiko, $400 for the non-ED non-IF Nikkor). This is
because people with an existing Olympus system are prepared
to pay a premium for these extra pieces, and, after all, they
didn't pay $400 for a Nikkor 50mm f/1.4. For these pieces, be
quick (like the *same day* they are nationally advertised)
or miss out. In these cases, the price is set by the changeover
cost to Nikon - $700 for a body - not by the supply/demand of
Zuikos.
- some pieces are practically unobtainable - can anyone
sell me a 1.4x converter?
- third-party lenses, except for Tamron, are almost
worthless, as are OM-10s.
- condition has a relatively greater effect on value.
I think the discount for a "discontinued" system is already largely
built in to the prices. We are a nation of early adopters and gadget
lovers.
My policy is to buy only used (and anyway, why reward Olympus for
shafting me?), buy only mint, and plan the switch now. When I do sell,
I intend to sell the complete system so as not to be left with the
common stuff. In theory, this will be good for the buyer too, who
won't have to run around trying to put a system together. The reason I
have not switched yet is that as yet neither Nikon nor Canon quite
suit my needs, and I can quite cheaply chop and change until I have a
better idea of what those are. I expect Nikon to eventually be the one
- they are missing only one lens I want. And I expect to buy *new*,
since used Nikon prices often exceed mail-order prices from New York
and I will want only the latest AF lenses. This works for me, since I
can afford to wait for the right buyer and past any initial price dip,
but anyone short of money who sticks to Olympus is in for trouble
if their photographic needs change.
The volume of the used Nikon market is relatively not that much bigger
than for Zuikos, since back when Nikon was dominant in most countries
it was handicapped here by absurd levels of import duty. The Canon EOF
used market is actually the most useful one, but prices are high and
I've had some bad experiences with Canon products; I don't like
Minolta, and that leaves Olympus.
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